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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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27.41+0.62 (+2.33%)
As of 3:39PM EDT. Market open.
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  • L
    Looking Good
    Bunge reported this morning excellent numbers, which bodes well for CF who will report next week. While not in the same business segments as CF it is a related peer group company.

    Remember, CF is in the S&P500 so it will trade down with the market. I expect CF to report decent numbers as usual, showing strong cash flow from operations. Management is really skilled at cranking out free cash flow despite different agri-market conditions. Looks like a good buying opportunity in spite of poor stock price action. Business fundamentals still intact. India is back with tenders.

    Bunge said in its earnings press release, "In Fertilizer, we now expect full-year adjusted results to be slightly higher than last year." This is good supporting outlook for CF.

    Bunge (BG) – The agriculture commodities company reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.47 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of 20 cents a share. Revenue came in above estimates as well. Bunge saw strong demand for oilseed processing and soy products, and the company lifted its full-year outlook. The shares rose 6% in premarket trading as of 7:40 a.m. ET.
  • F
    Foster
    @Sandy OK, I am feeling much better today since this is moving up instead of down for the first time since I have owned it. You know me from the BG board too. I just wonder if it is finally moving because the overall market is up (S&P), or is that press release about Ammonia production for Hydrogen Energy, causing some green investment interest? I really can't believe that is moving the needle for this big company. Either way, I will be happy to tell my friends I am going green! That is actually a joke if you knew me.
  • F
    Foster
    OK, is anyone buying more here? This is getting scary especially when I see MOS up today. I realize they produce a different product but still in the same sector.
  • L
    Looking Good
    Yara Intl (YARIY) is another good leading indicator that CF is doing just fine. Yara is a nitrogen fertilizer producer out of Norway and is often a company that CF compares itself during their quarterly presentations. Yara announced their earnings last week which were superb. Not only did they announced an extraordinary dividend distribution. Yara also generates excellent free cash flow like CF. They said that their India plant is performing well amid the COVID-19 so I imagine the circumstances would not be wildly different for CF. Yara stock was at $20 at the beginning of the year while CF was at $45. Yara stands at $17 today while CF at $26. On a relative basis Yara is down 15% YTD while CF is down 42% YTD.

    I expect to see the stock move up on earnings and the company should execute on their buyback program if the stock remains here. Right now they are under a blackout rule until earnings are announced plus two days.
  • F
    Foster
    OK, I am new here. I just bought in at prices ranging from 31 to high 29s over the month of Oct. Is there some underlying problem with this company that I don't know about? Perhaps I have caught another falling knife? Is it only weak as of late because the price of natural gas is going up? Could it be that simple? I suspect natural gas is going much higher in the next 60 days. Is that a good reason to not by more CF at these levels? I know very little about Ag companies. The only other one I own is BG and I realize it is different than a fertilizer company.
  • l
    lava
    after market today or tomorrow there will be bad news coming
  • L
    Looking Good
    Corn and wheat prices moving up nicely over the last month. According to DTN the three fertilizers that were slightly higher include DAP with an average price of $439/ton, up $8; MAP $459/ton, up $17; and urea $362/ton, up $1. UREA being up is a very good sign. India (INDA) is up too indicating economy is picking up there. I would expect CF to start moving up as investors recognize the improvement in pricing.
  • l
    lava
    its a strong sell and good stock to short at this price there is bad bad news coming so it will go below $20
  • N
    NYSE
    The last time old NYSE purchased this stock it sold for $15. It went to the $50s after that. Today old NYSE made his initial purchases.
  • N
    NYSE
    Old NYSE pick up a good block of shares down here.
  • W
    WAYNE
    Back to April prices.
    Management needs to be replaced as the business runs itself with increasing cash flow cash Re-direct cash into buybacks or buyouts and return 5% CASH on cash instantly
  • F
    Foster
    CF is bucking a very ugly day in the market and even uglier day for energy. With energy, it is never safe to go back in the water! What I would really like to know is this. Is this idea of Blue Hydrogen fuel real or just or just another fusion reactor that doesn't exist? I first heard the term reading a report on one of my Natural Gas producers. Is Blue Hydrogen something that is made from natural gas or is it to replace natural gas? Seems that CF is not the only company excited about it. Why would a natural gas company be excited about it? So "Green" Ammonia is required in the processing, storage and transportation of "Blue: Hydrogen?
  • L
    Looking Good
    I came across some excellent commentary regarding strong urea demand from India. Bodes well for CF. Investors are not paying enough attention to this company.

    August saw two, back-to-back India tenders as government buying agencies struggled to keep up with high farmer demand following a late start to purchases this year due to COVID-19. Seasonal rains continued to support strong fertilizer demand in India, and a lack of exports from China drove prices higher through the month, culminating in the purchase of 1.7 mmt of urea to end August.

    The Egypt FOB price rose to $280/mt, up $20-$30 from July prices following higher prices achieved from the India tenders, which until August, had been far below before moving in line with prices at this time last year. Brazil prices strengthened to a lesser degree, ending August around $5 higher to $268-$275/mt CFR as the country is in between crops at the moment and quiet, similar to the U.S.

    Overall, the international market was quiet and watched India for indications on where prices would move. Higher prices did indeed follow, though to a lesser degree in the U.S. during this seasonally slow period. In the short term, our outlook on international urea is stable to soft, with India expected to call for more of the global supply in the coming weeks.
  • J
    JIN
    It's a shame that the price has plummeted today. But it is still very attractive stock for me with not that bad spread. Low NasGas price and relatively resistant urea price.

    These days I imagine how Ammonia price will go moving. Several weeks ago after the unexpected S/D from one factory in SEA it has going up. So I hope this drift goes continuously.

    And I read some articles that Ammonia is mentioned for one of the friendly-energy.
    Marine fuel energy and raw material for hydrogen extraction(decomposition..?)

    The moment will come not very soon but it is not that far.
  • J
    JIN
    The purchasing period is coming.

    If you have transacted CF stocks for few yeras, you would know that it is a typical cyclical one.

    As spring is the main - fert application - season, I think the price will slightly go down a little bit. Globally Ammonia market is still very quiet (but some signals appear the price is moving up) and urea price is also stable and weak.

    Overall, fert demand in the world might be very high. It means the next year would not be good as this year. However, this company is still interesting for me.

    With the most competitive production cost and with one of the big domestic market. I think it will meet the golden age in few years again.
    And furthermore Ammonia is discussed in several countries as reforming into Hydrogen.
  • L
    Looking Good
    I've always felt selling stock is a far more difficult decision making process than taking on a position. Tax ramifications are a factor as you mentioned, but usually I usually don't worry too much about it. Maybe, that's because most of my investments are in retirement accounts. Therefore, hearing that others are selling simply for tax reasons only affirms my view of a buying opportunity. The FCF this company is generating is excellent in this environment. It really shows how well it is managed. I would like to see more insider purchasing by management (NOT issued via options).
  • g
    gary
    Held up pretty well during recent sell off. I've been a long time CF holder. My dream is wake up one Monday morning to find out John Deer bought them out. I have 5,000 shares and I'm looking to sell. Don't see a reason for the stock to move unless Urea prices jump up significantly, or China agrees to import more from US in order to stop using coal to produce their own
    Neutral
  • R
    Rich
    I have been an occasional poster on this board over the years. I have been a supporter of CF management recognizing the efficiency of the operations and financial management. Over the years my CF position grew to about 12% of my portfolio by accumulating in the low 20's to mid 40's. Three weeks ago I sold my entire CF positions. One critical factor in my decision to unwind CF was the lost opportunity of capital gains from having such a large position in CF. Over the past three weeks the capital gains I realized from unwinding my CF position has out performed my capital gains from being long CF for the past few years. CF is a well run company that the market seems to ignore. I will continue to watch CF and hopefully take another position in mid October before 3rd qtr earnings release in early November. Perhaps CF should not be as focused on stock buybacks and paying down as much debt as it has. Imagine if half of those dollars allocated for buybacks and debt reduction were returned directly to the shareholders through dividends. I hope to acquire a position in CF again; just before more FCF is directed to its dividend.

    GLTA!
  • W
    WAYNE
    Just another #$%$ day to tell inept management to buy stock back because they have no clue when to do it
  • J
    JIN
    In a short term, the international nitrogen price is stable to weak. For urea Brasil is catching their breath and will look for the last spurt to purchase and india is ready to absorb. But from now it is a traditionally off-season. Everyone will look for the best timing of purchase.

    Howver, Grain price is booming up so it's a good news for fert. So in Q1 I think the price will go up and we ll meet the main season. I believe it is a good moment to start to buy again.