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S&P 500 (^GSPC)

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3,130.01+14.15 (+0.45%)
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  • s
    Has anyone realized that coronavirus is trending UP in the USA? Most cases in a day today. Yet we keep climbing....
  • J
    50,000 new Covid cases - single day record - S&P should fly tomorrow.
  • Y
    The balance sheet of companies and households has taken a beating Q2 and probably will for another 3-4 quarters more. As a result consumer spending (2/3 of US economy) will be down and so will EPS which may be negative for some companies.
    US government balance sheet will take a double hit, much more spending and much less tax revenues.
    From there it will take 2-3 years to rebuild balance sheet to where companies and consumers can spend again.
    Vaccines will not start till Q1 2021 and there will not be enough of them to count till end 2022, by that time half the world population (3-4 Billion) would have contrcated covid19.

    Q: Why is the market fighting economic reality, and how long can it keep it up?
    2001 and 2007 shocks took 12-24 months year to bottom, so well see full impact 2021-2022...
    and priobably Biden will get blamed for Trumnps mess.
  • A
    THE NEW BULLSHIP MARKET! ANYONE ELSE CONFUSED? Feel free to reply, we all could use the advice...

    1. The employment-population ratio — the number of employed people as a percentage of the U.S. adult population — plunged to 52.8% in May, meaning 47.2% of Americans are jobless.


    2. “Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels. The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus,” Powell said.
    “A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities,” he added. “The path forward will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery for as long as needed.”


    3. Cases were growing by 5% or more, based on the change in average new cases compared with last week, in 37 states across the country as of Sunday, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The nation’s seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases increased more than 42% compared with a week ago, according to Johns Hopkins data, reaching an average of nearly 38,200 daily new cases. The number of global Covid-19 cases topped 10 million Sunday, with the U.S. reporting roughly a quarter of the cases.

  • J
    Jon 2.0
    What are people buying right now at these levels? Is it just the expectation that the fed will prop the market up forever? I'm asking because until recently people were buying on hope for the quick recovery, but the second wave became a certainty last week and this still wants to go up.
  • M
    We need to be ready for another super week next week. Once JP turn the printers back on this index will make every holder very 😃, have a great 4 th
  • R
    I said this 3 times in the last 2 months. I am going to say it again . Stay atleast 40- 50 percent invested in the market.The rest of your money you can, short, put, call or go long. You will maybe not make alot of money but you will not lose alot of money.
  • J
    BREAKING: Fed develops vaccine against selling stocks.
  • J
    End red today? Stranger things have happened.
  • S
    Daily deaths have declined around 73% since mid april and are on a clear downward trend. Of new infections the big majority are under the age of 30, so very few of those will die from the disease. Most are actually detected with very minor or no symptoms.
    Infections in the vulnerable age grorups have dropped significantly and are also trending downwards, wich means we are doing a good job of social distancing and care of our elderly. Sure, we have to keep socially distancing and we have to keep some sanitary measures, but there is no sense in panicing about new cases, there are new cases of several diseases every day. The coronavirus will never go away, the mission is to avoid death of coronavirus and overwhelming the Healthcare System, wich we are clearly achieving.

    Don't be blinded by the panic that is created by several publlic sources. Try to objectively look at the data and make your own opinions rather than adapting those of the media or Fauci (for the sake of this comment I'm looking at data from https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america).
    Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths
    Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths
  • D
    Will we see any selloff heading into the holiday weekend? Or is this going to continue up?

    I'm bearish on the economy as a whole, but not interested in fighting the Fed.

    Up or down?
  • J
    We bested our record in COVID cases by about 12% today ... S&P should be up by the same amount.

    Now that .... would be super crazy cool... duuuuude.
  • A
    I have made peace with myself and I have accepted the fact that I am unable to do it.
  • S
    $^IXIC conversation
    California is not bankrupt but it is insolvent. California’s liabilities vastly exceed its assets. A State cannot declare bankruptcy but that may change someday. See, The Case for Allowing U.S. States to Declare Bankruptcy

    California has an unfunded pension liability estimated by some to be half a trillion dollars. See, California’s unfunded pension debts may be larger than acknowledged Here is one observer that says the debt is well over a trillion. Golden State Pension Deficit: $1.2 Trillion

    Essentially, in order to have anyone willing to work a California government job—whether state, county or local, rather than pay up front, governmental organizations have hidden their rich benefits from the public by granting modest salaries but huge pensions.

    These pension rights are staggering. Your typical firefighter in California retires with an income that would require a self-employed person to have saved over $3.5 million dollars to earn. An appropriate pay-as-you-go salary that would take the value of the promised pension and pay it up front would have most state employees taking home well over $500,000 per year. Politicians know that they are making promises they can’t keep, but the California miracle just keeps chugging along—they make just barely enough to pay their pension obligations and keep the state running, barely.

    A dentist in one of California’s prisons retired at a salary of over $650,000 a year. See, California’s unfunded pension debts may be larger than acknowledged There are currently over twenty thousand people drawing a more than six-figure pension from the State of California’s pension fund. http://reason.com/blog/2016/08/09/californias-six-figure-pension-club

    Look up what happened in the City of Bell. The City Manager and Police Chief voted themselves some incredible salaries and benefits because the citizens didn’t know enough about their government to object. http://timelines.latimes.com/bell/ In my opinion, exactly the same thing is happening in the State of California albeit on an exponentially larger scale, i.e. more dollars, more workers.

    As did the citizens of Bell, the day will come when the good folk of California finally understand the sheer size and scope of the bill they have incurred for the retirement benefits secured by the various government workers’ unions. There was a brief glimmer of hope when Arnold tried to break the union’s power in this area, but that failed. All Four of Schwarzenegger's Ballot Initiatives Fail Had Arnold limited his reformatory efforts to just the unions, there may have been hope for the state. However, at present it is all but guaranteed that the State of California will have to restructure its obligations, i.e. default on its pensions.

    Now, some people disagree. Some believe that California is such a huge and independent economy that it can, in essence, print its own money. Others are convinced that the State is too big to fail. Observers of our financial history will note that most large institutions in the United States are not allowed to fail—the federal government will ride to the rescue and force the state to scale back.

    And, where does all the California Pension money end up? Most of the pensioners leave California and buy properties in other western states where the living is cheaper. In a real way, California’s taxpayers are subsidizing the economies of most of the intermountain west. Why CalPERS retirees flee California

    There is a terrible disaster on the horizon—it will inflict incredible suffering on many innocent families who rely on California to keep its pension promises.

    $^IXIC, $^DJI, $^GSPC, $^RUT
    Former county administrator made $340K in 2015, as CalPERS taxpayer-backed debt climbed to $139 billion.
    Former county administrator made $340K in 2015, as CalPERS taxpayer-backed debt climbed to $139 billion.
  • N
    KUDO's to those who correctly see America shrugging off the pandemic and go back to work! Albeit many wallstreet traders are on vaca and we probably would have had an up day no matter what the jobs report, but still its great to see the resilience of the American worker. I personnally don't believe there will be much more upside today than what we already have.... but of coarse I am wrong about half the time. LOL.

    My wild guess is that we will be back down to 8% unemployment by November and below 6% by the end of 2021.
    Although we do not need it, I predict congress will come up with yet another aid package to help out the schools and hospitals, plus stuff our individual checking accounts with an additional $1,200 each in order to buy some more beer, ETF', pay off credit cards and put in the Sunday offering (choose your fav).

    I believe many companies will go bankrupt or have to dilute their stock in major ways over the next 12 months and unfortunately man small investors will get hurt, airline stocks and cruiselines will not be as profitable as precovid because of all of the extra debt they took on, but will return back to normal with revenues approaching what they were pre-covid within 12 months.

    Oil will be above $60 within a year, perhaps even spiking well above that for a short period.

    I personally believe we will have a vaccine by 1q-2021 and also other medicine that will benefit the pharma'.

    I believe the SP500 will reach alltime highs within the next month or so, before taking a rest in October just prior to the elections.
  • J
    Clearly the market doesn't care that we are going back to lockdown... we are on track to hit 50K new COVID cases today. Go fake market go....
  • N
    closed below its 200 mda again. Look at the battle surrounding the 200 mda a couple weeks ago. If anyone reading this has been trading for just the last three months of their lives, please know that many times the hardest trade to make is the best one. In other words, everyone with deep conviction on buying the dips have made a life time of profits this spring. But the market is NOT so prodictable. It acts in a way to seperate the most amount of money from the largest number of people, biggley. I personally would not buy this dip on margin, but rather might deploy only half as much as you normally do each day.
  • M
    It is weird when virtually every piece of economic news is negative and the coronavirus is probably at its peak in terms of new case numbers (remove NY from the data and it is the highest daily rate ever) and we see an end of day rally. Because things will be better in three months than they are now?